Pakistan: Four Scenarios
Synopsis
In Pakistan today, there are more questions than answers. One of the questions increasingly being asked within, and outside, is who will rule Pakistan. It is certainly not an easy question to answer. General Pervez Musharraf, in power for about eight years, has come to believe that he alone is the best hope for Pakistan. People outside the cantonments seem to have a different view. They believe that the general has over-stayed in Islamanad -and it's time for people to decide who will rule them. The problem is they hardly have a choice. The political parties countering the military rule are partisan, parochail and have a history of belying the promises of progress made at frequent intervals in the troubles six decades of Pakistan's existence. democracy seems a distant dream. This work is an attempt to work around these, and other, question facing Pakistan with the help of scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions but are, nevertheless, based on critical assessments of the changing situation in Pakistan. They provide an insight into the underlying forces impelling changes which will have a telling impact on the future of Pakistan. In a way, these scenarios are a bold attempt to look beyond, and between, events to study the changing matrix in a troubled region.
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In Pakistan today, there are more questions than answers. One of the questions increasingly being asked within, and outside, is who will rule Pakistan. It is certainly not an easy question to answer. General Pervez Musharraf, in power for about eight years, has come to believe that he alone is the best hope for Pakistan. People outside the cantonments seem to have a different view. They believe that the general has over-stayed in Islamanad -and it's time for people to decide who will rule them. The problem is they hardly have a choice. The political parties countering the military rule are partisan, parochail and have a history of belying the promises of progress made at frequent intervals in the troubles six decades of Pakistan's existence. democracy seems a distant dream. This work is an attempt to work around these, and other, question facing Pakistan with the help of scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions but are, nevertheless, based on critical assessments of the changing situation in Pakistan. They provide an insight into the underlying forces impelling changes which will have a telling impact on the future of Pakistan. In a way, these scenarios are a bold attempt to look beyond, and between, events to study the changing matrix in a troubled region.
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